Does a hot summer guarantee a warm autumn?

Does a hot summer guarantee a warm autumn?

Does a hot summer guarantee a warm autumn?

In short :

  • Autumn could be like summer;
  • Rising trend for warm autumns since 2010;
  • Very hot summers lead to warmer autumns.

Summer guarantor of autumn?

To what extent can we conclude that a hot summer leads to a hot autumn? The data are not very conclusive if we consider the 15 cases reported since 1942. The average is once in three. The transitional season, which begins in September, has its own characteristics, in particular the reduction of the sun’s action.

AUTUMN1 1942

Heavy trend

A trend has been emerging since 2010. In Montreal, eight summer seasons were hotter than normal. For the following autumn the news is good: half of the time the temperatures are warmer than average.

AUTUMN 2 2010

very hot summers

When summer is in the hottest ten, the sequel becomes more interesting. A ripple effect is occurring as the influential phenomena of the season have left their mark. In fact, when the summer season turns out to be much warmer, the chances of experiencing an equally pleasant autumn increase.

“It should be remembered that the locomotive of a very hot summer still leaves its mark on the autumn that follows, estimates Réjean Ouimet, meteorologist. The indirect impacts of a very dominant trend in one season can therefore have a certain link with the following season. If summer is very hot, autumn is likely to be very hot. Of the 10 hottest summers in southern Quebec, 70% of autumns have been warmer than average. “

Regional inequality

Although the summer turned out to be very hot, the rhythm of autumn can vary depending on the region. Metropolis and Gaspé are favorites with seven and six warm seasons respectively.

“The heat that persists more easily in southern Quebec and in the east due to the warm waters of the Gulf of San Lorenzo explains this regional distortion, explains Réjean Ouimet.”

AUTUMN3 TOP 10 (1)

In 2022

This year the summer heat was not evenly distributed. Indeed, after a disappointing June, the gradual rise in mercury allowed for a slightly warmer summer than normal. There are nine of them. Only three successive autumns were hot.


With the collaboration of Réjean Ouimet, meteorologist.

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