extreme rainfall “probably” due to global warming

extreme rainfall “probably” due to global warming

extreme rainfall “probably” due to global warming

Global warming has “more likely” worsening of extreme rainfall causing catastrophic flooding in Pakistan, World Weather Attribution study finds (in English) presented on Thursday 15 September. Nearly 1,400 people have died since June as a result of these floods which have drowned a third of Pakistan, affected some 33 million people and caused more than $ 30 billion in damage.

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“Extreme rainfall in the region has increased by 50-75% and some models suggest that this increase could be entirely due to human-induced climate change, although the results present considerable uncertainty.”conclude researchers from WWA, a network of scientists pioneering in assessing the impact of global warming on the intensity and probability of extreme weather events.

For this study, the scientists used meteorological data and “31 different models” computer to compare the current climate with that of the pre-industrial era, 1.2 ° C colder than today. According to their findings, “some models suggest that climate change has increased total rainfall in five days by up to 50% in Sindh and Balochistan”during the peak experienced by these two southern provinces they received in August “seven and eight times the normal rain”.

Scientists also analyzed the 60 days of heaviest monsoon rain in the entire Indus basin, between June and September, but modeling “presented great uncertainties”. “Current models are not fully capable of simulating precipitation” in this region “at the western edge of the monsoon” and whose precipitation is “extremely variable from year to year”, they analyzed. Therefore, “Scientists have not been able to estimate the influence of climate change on this aspect”.

However, “What we have seen in Pakistan is exactly what climate projections have been predicting for years”Friederike Otto, of Imperial College London, pointed out during a press conference. For Fahad Saeed, researcher in Islamabad, “Pakistan must call upon developed countries to take responsibility and provide adaptation assistance, as well as support for loss and damage, to the countries and people most affected by climate change.”.

Pakistan is responsible for less than 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions (for 3% of the world population), but ranks 8 among the countries most threatened by extreme weather phenomena, according to a study by the NGO Germanwatch. . These emissions, produced by the consumption of coal, oil or gas for transportation, food, housing or industry, are the main cause of global warming.

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