MIGUEL MEDINA / AFP
For the first time since 2008, the French pension system is in surplus in 2021 and 2022, but this improvement will not last.
PENSION – A provisional surplus. For the first time since the 2008 economic crisis, the pension system generates a surplus of 900 million euros in 2021, according to the annual report of the Pensions Orientation Council (COR) that the AFP was able to consult on Monday 12 September. Unfortunately, this improvement will not last and the pension system is expected to return to deficit in 2023.
After ten years in the red, the pension system will return to exceeding 900 million euros in 2021, and the surplus will be even greater in 2022, with a surplus of 3.2 billion euros.
This positive trend is due to “The strong recovery of growth” last year, develops the relationship. The increase in contributory revenues has in fact made it possible to fill the “hole” in the pension system. Only, experts estimate that starting from 2023 the overall balance of French pension systems should be back to being “deteriorate considerably”.
A balanced system at best in 2030
And the next few years will be just as dark according to the report, the “The pension system would be in deficit on average over the next 25 years”. The Committee is also counting on a return to the balance of the contributions / retirement pension balance at best in the mid-2030s. In the worst-case scenario, however, we would have to wait until the 1970s.
So, what should we think of the opportunity to reform the system, which is an election promise from Emmanuel Macron? Each field will find arguments in this report. Because if the Cor foresees it ” the pension system would be in deficit on average over the next 25 years “, he also points out that his work” they do not validate the merit of speeches that put forward the idea of an uncontrolled dynamic of pension spending “.
The system remains “Structurally in deficit”he says in an interview with the newspaper Point the Minister of Labor, Olivier Dussopt, announcing that he will have done so “an exchange with the social partners on 19 September on the basis of (this) report”. But the unions are already unanimous on one point: if the government decided to change the statutory retirement age in the fall during the discussion on the Social Report, it would immediately abandon the deal.
With the Touraine reform approved under the Hollande five-year period, the contribution period gradually increases until it reaches 43 years for people born in 1973 or later.
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