The Euronext logo is visible on a building in the La Défense district of Paris
PARIS (Reuters) – Major European stock exchanges are expected to rise on Monday on the heels of Wall Street and Tokyo, for a session that promises to be quiet on the eve of inflation in the United States, the need for strong interest in news interest rates remain the main concern of the markets.
Index futures contracts suggest an increase of 0.66% for the Frankfurt Dax, 0.2% for the London FTSE 100 and 0.59% for the EuroStoxx 50. Regarding the CAC 40 in Paris , according to the first indications available.
The economic agenda for the day is almost empty, with the exception of British industrial production data. But the main economic event of the week will be the release of monthly US consumer price (CPI) data on Tuesday, expected to rise 8.1% in a year in August after + 8.5% in July.
These statistics will be followed even more closely as they take place a week before the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, of which several members do not hide the desire to continue the rapid increase in credit costs.
On Friday, one of the US central bank governors, Christopher Waller, argued for a “significant” rate hike and St. Louis Branch President James Bullard argued for a three-quarter point hike. .
“These leaders have made it clear that the FOMC needs to continue raising interest rates until they have clear evidence of slowing inflation,” Commonwealth strategist Joseph Capurso of the Bank of Australia said in a statement.
The assumption of a 75bp hike on September 21 is now considered likely at 91% according to the CBOE’s FedWatch barometer.
In the euro zone, following the three-quarter rate hike announced on Thursday, several European Central Bank (ECB) officials also took advantage of the weekend to continue arguing for a further marked tightening in the following month.
Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel specifically told a German radio that if the inflation curve doesn’t start to bend, “clear new measures will have to follow.”
A WALL STREET
The New York Stock Exchange closed strongly on Friday, driven by technology and growth stocks, which benefited from renewed investor confidence following a decline in recent weeks.
The Dow Jones Index gained 1.19%, or 377.19 points, to 32,151.71, the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 61.23 points, or 1.53%, to 4,067.41 and the Nasdaq Composite was up 250.18 points (+ 2.11%) to 12,112.31.
Over the course of the week, the S & P-500 was up 3.65%, the Dow Jones by 2.66% and the Nasdaq by 4.14%, their first weekly rise since mid-August.
Index futures suggest an open close at breakeven.
On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei Index gained 1.06% less than an hour after closing on Wall Street on Friday, led by large-cap companies such as Fast Retailing (+ 1.95%) or Tokyo. Electron (+ 1.12%).
Air travel and tourism values are also benefiting from reports that the government plans to raise quotas on foreign visitor arrivals to Japan soon.
In China, markets are closed for the Moon Festival, also known as the Mid-Autumn Festival.
The euro is taking full advantage of ECB officials’ weekend statements in favor of a further sharp rise in interest rates: at $ 1.0084, it gains 0.45% after climbing to 1.0130, the highest level. high from 18 August.
The dollar meanwhile fell 0.24% against a basket of benchmark currencies pending US inflation data.
US Treasury yields vary little in Asia, at 3.3328% for ten-year bonds and 3.561% for two-year bonds.
On Friday, the latter reached its highest level in more than 14 years in session at 3.575% following statements by Fed officials.
The oil market fell again following a roughly 4% hike on Friday, with health restrictions in China and the prospect of continued interest rate hikes serving as a pretext to take profits.
Brent lost 1.5% to 91.45 dollars a barrel and US light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) by 1.71% to 85.31 dollars.
(Written by Marc Angrand, with Kevin Buckland in Tokyo)