Sweden could enter a new political era. The legislative elections, on Sunday 11 September, placed the outgoing left neck and neck with the unprecedented block between right and extreme right, with a final result that could be played with only one or two seats, depending on the results. .
While the exit polls gave the left a small lead, the right led by conservative leader Moderates Ulf Kristersson, backed by far-right Sweden Democrats (SD), is now in a “carry” position. Based on the votes counted around 11.30pm on three quarters of the seats, he would get exactly the absolute majority of 175 seats, for 49.7% of the votes.
The left-wing camp led by the outgoing prime minister, the Social Democrat Magdalena Andersson, is assigned 174 seats, with 48.8% of the votes, according to the electoral authority’s tally.
The Swedes voted after a campaign of maximum suspense, dominated by the themes of crime and inflation. Until these legislative elections, the traditional right had never thought of governing with the direct or indirect support of the SD party, which declares itself nationalist and anti-system.
A long pariah training
A long night is being prepared to clarify a result that has become increasingly uncertain as the evening progresses, with differences that could be decided by a few tens of thousands, or even thousands of votes. For a long time pariah, the far-right formation, exceeding 20%, would have won a second place never obtained before, thus becoming the first formation of a new right-wing bloc. It marks the strongest progression of the eight parties present in Parliament.
Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, 55, hopes to remain in power by relying on a “red-green” package for the left’s third term of four consecutive years. According to these partial results, the Social Democrats have maintained the first place since the 1930s as expected, obtaining votes (30.4%). The conservatives of the moderates would back down slightly and would be only the third party, with 19.0% of the vote.
The campaign was dominated by themes that could favor right-wing opposition: crime and the settlement of deadly gangs, rising fuel and electricity prices, integration problems … But the solid popularity of Mmyself Andersson, whose confidence rating surpasses that of his conservative rival, Ulf Kristersson, as well as the far-right bogeyman, are supporting the left’s cause.
The five constituencies have given a very slight advantage to the “red-green” field in their latest bursts (49.6% to 51.6%), compared to 47.6% to 49.4% for the total right / far right , but they are all within the margin of error. The last two weeks of the election campaign saw the far-right party surpass the Conservative Moderate party in polls (about 19-21%), a new record.
“A real possibility”
A right-wing victory backed by the far right would represent a fundamental political change for Sweden, which is expected to take over the rotating presidency of the European Union on 1uh January and finalize his historic candidacy for NATO.
At the polling station on the outskirts of Stockholm, SD activists cheered at the announcement of the first estimates, waving their flags in the party colors, then hoping to see the rights take the ultimate advantage.
In Sweden, the office of Prime Minister traditionally goes to the first party of the victorious alliance. A total of 349 seats are allocated proportionally to parties that reach at least 4%. To be invested, a prime minister must not have 175 or more votes against, but not necessarily an absolute majority in his favor.
“Now for the first time we have a real chance, a real chance not only to be an opposition party but also to be part of a new government that takes politics in a completely different direction”party number 2, Richard Jomshof, reacted to SVT’s microphone.
If Sweden’s Democrats are hoping for ministries, other right-wing parties are reluctant to give them government portfolios, preferring to rely on them only in parliament. Even on the left, the exact form of the executive leaving the polls remains marked by uncertainty, with disagreements between the left and the center left. But political scientists say a political crisis similar to the one that followed the 2018 election – four months to form a government – is unlikely, as the fields are better delineated.