Once the page of summer is turned, with its record share of heat, its fires and its drought, now the eyes are turned to the months to come, with a central question: will it be cold? And with him heating bills that promise to be painful? We can measure the consequences on public health, but also the economic and social consequences this will have this year, when the prices of gas, electricity, pellets and fuel oil will all be at their highest levels.
Meteorological science is far from exact. Meteorologists therefore no longer speak of forecasts but trends, as we look forward to the next few weeks, the next few months. By studying the global climate system, in particular by analyzing the surface and depth temperatures of the oceans, the meteorologists of Météo France count on several three-month scenarios. More reliable on temperatures than on precipitation. It is more reliable for winter trends than for summer trends.
A warmer than normal autumn
In fact, the most probable scenario for the period September, October, November is that of an autumn ” hotter than normal in France according to Météo France. The organization statistically attributes 50% probability to this scenario, against 30% for an autumn in line with the norm and 20% colder. To explain it, Météo France proposes ” a favorable context for the shift towards northern Europe of oceanic flows and the circulation of perturbations “.
Still a very uncertain winter
” Beyond November we remain very cautious, some embark on acrobatic scenarios, we prefer to avoid it Says one of the Météo France in Villeneuve-d’Ascq. In fact, we can find very contrasting scenarios on various private forecast sites, without being able to trace a general trend … Example: when the Weather Channel announces a colder winter than the previous ones, lameteo.org expects a milder winter … ” The trend has been for rather mild winters in recent years, with temperatures struggling to drop below freezing in northern France. », Mario Danel, amateur but confirmed meteorologist, comments to Lilles. The surprise would be to get out of this trend.
In addition to the thermometer, not to be underestimated the amount of precipitation, which will be decisive in the coming weeks to get out, or not, of the current drought warnings. If in the last few days it has started to rain again, we are still very far from seeing the effects on the level of the aquifers, at the minimum of this summer release.
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