Autumn and winter are emerging in a particular context we are talking about ” energetic sobriety and energy prices go up. Individuals and companies are invited to moderate their electricity consumption, to lower the thermostats, especially during peak demand linked to the cold. The target. the goal? Reduce the load on the power supply as it increases the risk of shortage.
At the time of the energy crisis, many people already do not warm up or very little and live in precarious conditions. We remember that” 20% of French people say they suffered from the cold during the winter of 2020, for at least 24 hours. This is a 6-point increase over the previous winter. For 4 out of 10 families it is due to the poor thermal insulation of their home; more than 3 in 10 families invoke a limitation for financial reasons “, To explain the National Observatory on Energy Poverty (ONPE).
Will it be cold this fall and winter? Here’s what the experts predict.
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A warm autumn
Weather France outlined the general trends for this fall over three months, September, October and November. In terms of temperatures, autumn could be mild. ” The most likely scenario maintained for the September-October-November quarter is that of a warmer than normal climate in France “. The expert explains that these conditions arise” a favorable context for the shift towards northern Europe of oceanic flows and the circulation of perturbations. ” However, Weather France warns ” this most likely scenario applies to the quarter scale and does not rule out one-off episodes with locally below normal temperatures “.
It will rain? Will it be dry? Weather France indicates that none” for this quarter in France there is no scenario on the accumulation of precipitation “. And to clarify: that no trend appears as regards the frequency of meteorological situations favorable to the Mediterranean episodes. ” Weather France notice the same: However, the persistence of particularly high sea surface temperatures could contribute to increasing their intensity. “Even the expert does not rule out” occasional episodes with locally high rainfall. “
The weather channel provides details on the months of October, November and December 2022.
The weather channel announces October as ” a nice month off season “. Can be ” dry and relatively cool “. And to specify: “France would be subject to northerly currents, dry, but sometimes cool, with temperatures close to or slightly below average. “. What to bring the first early frosts “. Otherwise, ” the rainfall deficit forecast for October is close to 30% nationwide “.
According to The weather channelthe month of November could be ” pretty cool “. It would be a ” seasonal climate with generally normal temperatures, even slightly below the order of -0.5 ° C “As for rainfall, it “It would also be quite close to the seasonal averages in the eastern half of France, but still a little below the west “. In the end, ” the snow would be present in the middle of the mountains “.
The month of December would be without excess “. The weather channel To explain : ” To date, there are no particular signals regarding forecast anomalies “The expert predicts precipitation close enough to normal with possibly a slight deficit in the west “. As for temperatures, are expected for the season, or even slightly higher, of the order of + 0.5 ° C “. An insignificant difference that must be interpreted as “close to normal” “.
Autumn and winter in short
In conclusion, the predictions of The weather channel let us consider an autumn quite close to the seasonal averages in France, despite the fact that rainfall is struggling to spread throughout France “. Otherwise, ” the rains would return in November and December, but without particular abundance. Temperatures should also be fairly close to normal, with possible early frosts and a fairly cold month of November. “. In the end, ” in this context the snow could fall on our mountains. As for December, to date it has no particularities, which excludes extreme weather conditions. The rest of winter could be quite cold, especially in January “.